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The Market Scorecard (August 12, 2026)
KOSPI +3.68% | KRW 1,416.8 (Weak) | KR10Y 4.30%
DXY 99.8 | Oil $83.76 | Brent $88.91
Key Analysis
1. Background
On August 11 (KST), KOSPI opened lower, reflecting the prior day’s decline in US equities. Data released at 9 AM KST showed semiconductor exports for August 1 to 10 rose 155.4% year over year. The data showed growth in semiconductor demand and shipment volume. Foreign and institutional investors concentrated buying in Samsung Electronics. Samsung Electronics rose 4.13%, and SK Hynix rose 0.35%. Foreign investors net sold SK Hynix for a fourth straight session despite the share price gain. This marked a divergence in capital flow between the two stocks. Delays in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz raised oil prices. A rise in Korean government bond yields raised the discount rate applied to domestic stocks. This added downward pressure on share prices. Foreign investors reversed to net buying in KOSPI after four straight sessions of net selling. Net buying by foreign, institutional, and individual investors all fell more than 90% from the prior session. Trading value rose from the prior session. About 41% of KOSPI’s trading value was concentrated in Samsung Electronics. Large cap stocks rose 0.8%, mid cap stocks were flat, and small cap stocks rose 0.8%. Of KOSPI’s 942 constituent stocks, 563 rose and 309 fell. KOSPI rose 0.73% to close at 6,345.53.
On August 11 (EDT), restrictions on ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued. A decline in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve added evidence that oil supply constraints persisted. WTI rose. A rise in oil prices typically raises inflationary pressure. However, the market lowered the probability of a September FOMC rate hike ahead of the July CPI release scheduled for August 12. The decline in rate hike probability and demand at the US Treasury auction lowered Treasury yields. The decline in Treasury yields lowered the discount rate applied to the future cash flow of stocks. Event risk ahead of the CPI release limited the expansion of risk exposure across major indices. In the memory segment, a supply shortage among non-AI industries such as automakers and medical device makers raised expectations for commodity memory prices and shipment volume. Nvidia’s expanding AI data center investment raised demand expectations for server DRAM and HBM. Higher memory demand expectations raised the likelihood that memory makers would expand production capacity. The likelihood of capacity expansion raised demand expectations for semiconductor equipment. Memory and semiconductor equipment shares rose. The SOX rose 0.87%. The Nasdaq fell 0.60%, the S&P 500 fell 0.32%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.34%.
2. Key Catalysts
Primary Driver
On August 12 (KST), a rise in memory and semiconductor-related shares in the prior US session lifted KOSPI to open at 6,438.50, higher than the previous close of 6,345.53.
The New York Times reported that US companies and lobbyists asked the federal government to intervene in the memory chip supply shortage. Some companies asked memory makers to expand their customer base as a condition for CHIPS Act support, or asked the government to invoke the Defense Production Act to redirect memory chip supply to the automobile and medical device industries.
On Monday, August 10 (EDT), Nvidia signed a memorandum of understanding with Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield Asset Management, Goldman Sachs, and KKR for AI infrastructure development. The agreement aims to raise more than $500 billion in outside capital. The capital would be used for data center construction and Nvidia hardware purchases. An increase in outside capital supply raises data center capital expenditure capacity. Data center expansion raises demand for HBM and DRAM used in GPUs and servers.
On August 11 (EDT), CoreWeave and Supermicro Computer reported earnings after the market closed. CoreWeave’s second quarter revenue rose 112% year over year to $2.58 billion, above the market estimate of $2.56 billion. Supermicro Computer guided third quarter revenue to $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, above the market estimate of $12 billion. CoreWeave’s revenue growth showed rising AI cloud usage. Supermicro’s higher revenue guidance raised the likelihood of rising AI server demand.
A shortage in industrial memory supply reduced available supply capacity. Nvidia’s outside capital raise expanded capacity for AI data center investment. Together, CoreWeave’s revenue growth and Supermicro’s higher revenue guidance showed rising demand for AI cloud usage and servers. Limited memory supply combined with rising data center investment and server demand. This expanded the shortage in HBM and DRAM. The expanded shortage raised the likelihood of higher HBM and DRAM prices. Higher prices raised the likelihood of higher memory revenue and operating profit for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Foreign investors net bought 2.84 trillion KRW in KOSPI. Foreign investors bought 1.48 trillion KRW in Samsung Electronics and 845.1 billion KRW in SK Hynix. The two stocks accounted for 81.7% of total foreign net buying. Institutional investors also net bought 527.8 billion KRW in KOSPI. Institutional investors bought 196.2 billion KRW in Samsung Electronics and 288.8 billion KRW in SK Hynix. The two stocks accounted for 91.9% of total institutional net buying. As foreign and institutional buying concentrated in the two stocks, Samsung Electronics rose 6.68% and SK Hynix rose 5.54%.
A higher likelihood of rising memory demand raises the likelihood that memory makers raise capital expenditure on new and existing production lines to expand capacity. Higher capital expenditure can raise equipment orders for deposition, wafer transport, and packaging processes. Jusung Engineering supplies atomic layer deposition equipment used in memory production. Jusung Engineering rose 7.14%. Wonik IPS supplies deposition equipment used in memory and logic chip production lines. Wonik IPS rose 6.49%. Rorze Systems supplies wafer handling and transport equipment used in semiconductor production lines. Rorze Systems rose 7.03%. Expanding HBM production can also raise demand for packaging process equipment. Hanmi Semiconductor supplies thermal compression bonders used in HBM packaging for SK Hynix. Hanmi Semiconductor rose 2.11%.
KOSPI200 futures also rose. At 11:57 AM, KOSPI200 futures traded at 1,037.76, up 5.13% from the previous close. This triggered the 23rd buy-side sidecar of the year. A buy-side sidecar halts new buy orders in program trading for five minutes when KOSPI200 futures rise 5% or more within one minute. This limits how quickly a futures-driven surge in program buying can move the spot market. KOSPI200 futures extended gains even after the sidecar was triggered. KOSPI200 futures closed up 8.00% from the previous close.
Large cap stocks rose 4.0%, mid cap stocks rose 0.1%, and small cap stocks were flat. Of KOSPI’s 942 constituent stocks, 380 rose and 477 fell. More stocks fell than rose. KOSPI is a market-capitalization-weighted index, so the rise in large cap stocks lifted the index despite the wider number of declines. KOSPI rose 3.68% to close at 6,579.04.
Supporting Driver
On August 12 (KST), a report said Temasek had decided to invest directly in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. This investment would be Temasek's first direct investment in the Korean stock market. Temasek is reported to plan to execute the investment through its own investment team. Temasek plans to raise AI-related investment to 15% of its total portfolio within five years, up from 6% currently. Temasek holds stakes in Nvidia, TSMC, and ASML, and has also invested in OpenAI and Anthropic. In expanding its AI-related capital allocation, Temasek selected Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as direct investment targets to gain exposure to the memory semiconductor segment, a relatively undervalued part of the AI value chain. The Temasek investment report amplified the rise in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares.
3. Hidden Signals
Canary 1
Foreign investors net sold 2.14 trillion KRW in Samsung Electronics over three straight sessions from August 6 to 10. Foreign investors then net bought 2.06 trillion KRW over August 11 and 12. The two-session net buying equaled 96.5% of the prior three-session net selling.
Foreign investors net sold 2.45 trillion KRW in SK Hynix over four straight sessions from August 6 to 11. Foreign investors then net bought 845.1 billion KRW on August 12. The August 12 net buying equaled 34.5% of the prior four-session net selling.
Canary 2
Individual investors net sold 3.19 trillion KRW in KOSPI. Individual investors sold 1.53 trillion KRW in Samsung Electronics and 1.14 trillion KRW in SK Hynix. Combined net selling in the two stocks accounted for 83.6% of total individual net selling.
Individual and foreign investors traded Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix in opposite directions over the five sessions from August 6 to 12. Individual investors net bought Samsung Electronics on days foreign investors net sold the stock. Individual investors net sold Samsung Electronics on days foreign investors net bought. Individual investors net bought SK Hynix on days foreign investors net sold the stock. Individual investors net sold SK Hynix on days foreign investors net bought.
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Consult a qualified advisor before investing. Author may hold positions in discussed securities.
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Very interesting analysis. What stands out is the chain beneath the market rise: outside capital funds data centres and Nvidia hardware, increasing demand for HBM and DRAM, which then lifts Samsung and SK Hynix.
The demand is real. But the larger question remains: can the wider AI system convert this continuing expansion into durable economic returns? Let’s hope it can.